The United States has long been the world’s largest
wheat exporter, and as the state that produces more wheat
than any other, that’s brought Kansas a big chunk
of income. In 2003-2004, Kansas harvested more than
$1.5 billion in wheat, with more than half of it going
overseas.
 |
Mister Donut shop in Japan. photo by N. Larzalere.
|
But over the past two decades, world wheat trade has
been relatively flat. Economists and other wheat watchers
think that’s going to change.
One forecast estimates worldwide trade in wheat will
grow about 13 percent from 2003 to 2013 (Koo and Taylor).
Another projection, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
Agricultural Baseline Projections, predicts trade will
grow nearly 20 percent by 2015.
At first blush, that sounds like good news for Kansas
wheat and wheat farmers. And it will be if it is U.S.
and Kansas wheat that feeds the growing trade in widespread
markets. American wheat has long been synonymous with
quality, but competition has become fiercer in the
last 20 years, at the same time that U.S. wheat production
has slipped slightly and wheat has become more expensive
to grow.
|
Onetime sure bets as markets, such as China and former
members of the Soviet Union, have become exporters. Argentina
and India are selling large amounts of wheat outside
their borders, and the European Union has gotten aggressive
with export subsidies to move wheat. And Australia and
Canada, both of which have national wheat-selling monopolies,
have chipped away at U.S. strongholds, particularly in
Asia, by selling wheat that more readily meets those
markets’ demands for variety, cleanliness, and
price.
So, while consumption has risen in parts of Asia, Africa, and South America,
the United States hasn’t captured much of it. “Over the past 15 years the Korean food-use market has doubled from a
million tons to 2 million tons, but the U.S. tonnage in that market has stayed
roughly the same,” said John Oades, director of the West Coast Office of
U.S. Wheat Associates, the national marketing and development arm for American
growers. “Most of it has been displaced by Australian white. It has all
gone to Australian wheat.”
Predictions of U.S. exports a decade from now vary. The North Dakota State report
predicts that the United States will sell 2.8 percent less wheat overseas in
2013 than it averaged from 2001 to 2003 (though the domestic market is expected
to grow). The USDA export predictions are brighter, with that forecast estimating
the United States can be competitive for nearly all of that projected 20 percent
increase in trade.
Some of those markets American wheat brokers will be fighting for are in East
Asia, with more than 10 percent growth expected in Taiwan and South Korea. Japan’s
market is expected to stay flat, and China’s is growing but hard to predict
(Koo and Taylor). |
